Is another devastating war awaiting the world? A single spark is enough for an explosion

However, the dynamics that have exacerbated the Israeli-Iranian tension in recent weeks are still present beneath the surface. Rin the short term, we certainly cannot prepare for war, but in the medium and long term, this cannot be ruled out at all. There are several signs that the current tense situation will remain one spark will be enough to start a war.

The causes of the escalation spiral

In order to see these signs, we must first take into account what has led to the deterioration of Iran-Israel relations in recent weeks. There has been a serious ideological tension between the two countries since the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979: for the Islamist leadership that came to power in Tehran (and has held it ever since), Israel is a symbol of colonialism and the oppressive world order led by the United States. Accordingly, supporting the Palestinian cause is not only a duty, but one of the key elements of Iran’s regional strategy, with which the Shia country can increase its influence among the Sunnis.

Over the decades, the ideological resistance was transformed into a strategic competition. Since Iran could not compete with Israel’s military capabilities, including nuclear strikes and various high-tech devices, it tried to create a balance by building an international network. This network, called the “Axis of Resistance”, includes the Palestinian Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Yemeni Houthis, as well as several Iraqi and Syrian militias that pose a direct threat to Israel.

As a result of the mutual feeling of threat, a shadow war developed between the two countries in the 2010s. Within this framework, the two sides acted more indirectly against each other with smaller attacks, which they often did not even undertake (thereby also reducing the chance of escalation). In order to avoid escalation, the two countries created a specific set of rules, which they more or less adhered to, and which determined what was permissible between the two and what was not.

The main reason for the escalation in April 2024 is that both sides violated the rules governing the Iran-Israel rivalry.

After the October 2023 attack by Hamas, Israel completely reconsidered its security policy strategy and, having learned from the case of the Palestinian organization, does not want to tolerate the free development of militias on its border capable of attacks similar to those of October 7. However, this required stronger action than before: in January, the Israeli Air Force already carried out an operation in Beirut, and on April 1, they took action against an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus.

The new rules of the competition

With these actions, Israel broke the previous rules of competition with Iran and its allies. In this situation, the Iranian leaders felt that if they did not react strongly, they would show that Israel could act against them more and more boldly without consequences. So, after reading several scenarios the Iranian leadership decided to break a taboo and attack Israel directly from its own territory.

In this way, the Iranian leadership used a strategy that Russia likes to follow: it escalated in order to de-escalate. According to the idea, if one side suddenly raises the stakes and shows that it is capable of a much more serious attack than before, it can scare the other side from taking further military steps.

This tactic can be dangerous: the message can be misunderstood, and a failed attack can have the opposite effect. From this point of view, the Iranian attack on April 14 was ultimately successful, by launching more than 300 missiles and drones they did not cause significant damage to Israel, but they still signaled that the rules of the competition had changed.

This put the ball in Israel’s court, where several possible options for how to react have emerged in the past week. According to the news, there was also a serious debate within the cabinet about how strongly to respond, and the situation was complicated by two aspects.

• On the one hand, the US government put a lot of pressure on Israel not to respond and to move on with the 99% success of the defense as a victory.
• On the other hand, an ad hoc coalition was formed during the defense, to which, in addition to Israel and several Western states, Arab countries such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar also contributed. This coalition can be considered unprecedented, on which Israel can build in the future – at the same time, in the event of an attack on Iran, it would no longer be able to count on them.

So To everyone’s relief, Israel had a limited attack on April 19, in which he launched a loose attack against a military target, albeit on Iranian territory. Such an action did not stretch the rules of the competition any further, and even fit into the old rules.

With this, Israel sent a double message: it does not want to escalate, but at the same time, if it wants to, it can outwit the Iranian air defenses.

Escalation options

So we managed to get through April without a disaster, and apparently neither the Israeli nor the Iranian government wants a war with each other. However, this does not mean that we can sit back, because a situation similar to the current one can arise again at almost any time, for several reasons.

• On the one hand, not only we do not know the new rules of the competition, but neither do Iran and Israel. These rules develop over time, and primarily not through direct communication, but based on forms of behavior and reactions to them. In this situation the possibility of error and miscalculation is constantly high – just as on April 1, Israel did not think that the action in Damascus could lead to such a response from Iran.
• On the other hand the Gaza conflict remains unresolved, and regional tensions persisted. As the weeks pass, there is less and less chance of an agreement between Israel and Hamas, as it appears that the vast majority of hostages held in Gaza are dead. This reduces the agreement pressure on the Israeli government, which until now has prioritized the complete elimination of Hamas.
• Thirdly, the two countries continue to pose a threat to each other, and this the threat will only grow. Iran will continue to build its network and Israel will crack down on its members. If the Gaza crisis ends (which is unlikely to happen today), then the Lebanese crisis and the suppression of Hezbollah can easily begin.
• Fourthly, although the leadership of the two countries acted rationally today, this does not mean that they will always do so. Both Iran and Israel are ruled by hardline politicians, whose supporters expect them to act harder against the other. This is especially true when the idea that war is inevitable is gaining ground in both governments, and the question is who will start it and how. Such a prophecy often becomes self-fulfilling.

In this situation, Europe can do two things:

• on the one hand, you can maintain and build communication channels, primarily with Iran, so that there is always an opportunity to de-escalate and discuss the situation.
• On the other hand, using its remaining limited influence, it can try to encourage Israel to find a peaceful solution to the Gaza crisis and the situation in Lebanon by involving the Arab countries.

No matter how hopeless a situation is, the region’s politicians have already proven that if you have the political will, you can always dance back from the edge of the abyss.

Cover image source: Getty Images