In recent months, the morale of Ukrainian soldiers has been severely affected by supply shortages on the front line. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Russians have been in an amazing ten-fold advantage in recent weeks, which has greatly contributed to Moscow’s slow but steady advance. Serious problems were reported in the case of the income of the village of Ocretine: the Ukrainian 115th mechanized brigade simply ran away from the impending attack, almost completely surrendering most of the settlement to the Russians without a fight. The area was previously protected by the 47th mechanized brigade, famous in the war, but the 115th arrived to replace the exhausted units. In the end, the Ukrainian General Staff decided to turn back the departing formations, so the exhausted and probably demoralized 47th should prevent the further Russian advance.
The boom and then the gloomy outlook
Kyiv significantly increased the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU, or AFU in Anglo-Saxon sources) as a result of the 2022 Russian invasion. As long as
before the attack, the total strength of the armed forces was 246,000, this number swelled to 700,000 by October 2022.
Thanks to the rapid growth, the ZSU achieved serious success: they were able to liberate many territories occupied by the Russians. In 2023, the size of the zone controlled by the two sides did not change significantly, even though the battlefield events were still characterized by intense clashes. The constant fighting continuously increased the losses on both sides and exhausted the units that had been serving on the front line for two years.
The question of mobilization is a sensitive political topic in Kyiv, as it does not have sufficient support among the population, while the replenishment of the fighting units cannot wait any longer. On February 24, 2022, Zelensky ordered general mobilization, which has been in effect ever since. In the initial period, there were still long lines of Ukrainians intending to join the ZSU, but the initial enthusiasm dwindled more and more as a result of the protracted fighting. In 2023, it was already possible to read that the Kyiv General Staff is facing the problem of staff shortages in more and more places. The allegations were initially denied by the government, and in August 2023 the then Minister of Defense, Oleksiy Reznykov, claimed that Ukraine did not need to order another mobilization, only the current procedure needed to be made more efficient. The situation changed completely a few months later, as several officials acknowledged the increasingly serious problem by that time.
The foundations of the current mobilization procedures still come from the Soviet times, which now had to be quickly reformed.
The aim of the transformation was to increase transparency, improve the register, and increase the efficiency of administrative services.
However, several corruption scandals broke out in the country around similar recruitment centers, as in some places it was possible to buy off the regional leader so as not to have to serve at the front. Kyiv is trying to take action against this practice, having ordered screening of all centers, where many other problems have also surfaced. It was a famous case when the head of the Odessa center bought a private villa in Marbella, Spain for $4.35 million.
There was also a constant trend of Ukrainian men trying to leave the country specifically to avoid military service. According to some information, the number of refugees can be measured in the tens of thousands. Kyiv recently gave a drastic response to the negative trends, in the future Ukrainians fleeing from joining the ZSU will not be entitled to foreign representation assistance.
The average age of the Ukrainian fighting forces in November 2023 was 43 years, making them the oldest forces in the world.
In March 2022, the same figure was also 10 years lower, which also foreshadows a serious trend: with further aging, efficiency can also decrease significantly. The decision to postpone the demobilization of active military personnel for an indefinite period also contributed to this. However, this is more of a forced solution, since Kiev would need young soldiers in better physical condition on the front line, as they are better able to perform tasks.
Plans of Kyiv
In Kiev, it was well known for a long time that the morale of the Ukrainians was constantly decreasing, and that the units fighting on the front line were becoming more and more exhausted. They tried to find a solution to the increasing problems, and the Ukrainian president and former Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny quarreled spectacularly over this. According to the information, the force currently has 680,000 people, of which 200,000 are fighting at the front. The Financial Times put the latter figure at 330,000.
In December 2023, Zelensky told reporters that the armed forces would need about 450,000-500,000 people, which would put a burden on the budget of about 13 billion dollars. He entrusted Zaluzsny and the Ministry of Defense with the task of carrying out the mobilization. In addition, the age of compulsory enlistment was lowered from 27 to 25. In addition, the draft would have included measures that, according to rights protection organizations, violate the country’s constitution. As a result, they tried to adjust the framework in such a way that it would be more acceptable for everyone, for example, the powers of recruitment agencies were cut. The mobilization targets were eventually reduced, first to 400,000 and later to 250,000.
decommissioning is currently possible after 36 months of service, but this also raises questions.
Those who serve on the front line are exposed to much greater strain than those stationed in the hinterland. Even the completion of 3 years is not a guarantee, as the decision of the commander-in-chief can override this, thus extending the service to infinity. Another issue was the issue of rotation, which also sparked a debate among decision-makers.
Meanwhile, recruitment is ongoing in the country, in which they want to build a well-functioning exercise based on the successes of the 3rd Assault Brigade. The unit, made up mostly of veterans of the notorious Azov Battalion, has a strong social media campaign, as well as billboards and regular public speeches by commanders and soldiers. They emphasize camaraderie in their messages, as well as giving an applicant the opportunity to try out a simulated combat situation before making a decision to join.
It should be added that the Ukrainians lost tens of thousands of soldiers on the front even according to the smallest estimates, Zelenskyi spoke of 31,000 dead in February 2024. A multiple of this is possible, however, especially if we also calculate with the number of wounded.
The slow killer of Ukraine
It is important to add that the demographic situation in Ukraine was not very favorable anyway at the time the war broke out. After gaining independence in 1991, the country’s birth rate began to decline rapidly, thanks to economic difficulties and emigration.
To maintain a society, a total fertility rate of 2.07 is needed, which in Ukraine fell to only 1.1 at the turn of the millennium.
This meant that in the late 1980s, the annual birth rate of almost 800,000 fell below 400,000 in just over a decade. Later, these numbers were somewhat corrected, around 2010 the number of children born annually in Ukraine peaked again at around 500,000 people, and then began a radical decline again. According to Ukrainian data, the annual number of births was only 187,000 last year, which indicates very serious declines. This resulted in 26 percent of men in the country are in the 35-49 age group, while the proportion of 20-34-year-olds is only 17 percent.
The importance of demographics also determines the number of people who can be called up. A country (mostly) has as much capacity to expand its own defense capacities as its population allows. Most of the formations rely on men and can count on people born in the given generation. Ideally, this would mean that Ukraine would have a surplus of about 200,000 people every year (calculated with an annual birth rate of 400,000, about half of which are male) that it could tap into. The reality, however, is much more nuanced than this:
- Even before the war, young Ukrainian men left the country to a large extent to take up work in other countries. Several of them returned to their homeland to fight against the Russians, but many remained abroad. This also affects the number of soldiers who can be called up every year.
- As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, approximately 6 million people left the country, mostly young women with children and their children. This significantly reduced the number of future generations in the Eastern European country, while men who were not yet of conscription age at the time, but could reach it soon, also left the country. It should be added that the martial law in the country has already prohibited men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving Ukraine, except in special circumstances. According to the BBC report, this is not being enforced, approximately 650,000 men left the country fleeing the conscription. At this point, it should be mentioned that there are tens of thousands of people in hiding who, although they have received the summons, still do not fulfill their obligations.
- As time progresses in society, the number of people born in the country in a given year decreases – at first slowly, later at a constantly accelerating rate. This can also be due to health reasons, illnesses, accidents, etc. Here it is worth mentioning that among the almost 200,000 Ukrainian men born in the late 1990s, the number of those who could be suitable for front-line service in the future was limited at the moment of their birth.
- Envelope that a large number of Ukrainian men were already in Russian-controlled areas before the 2022 attackwhen Moscow first tore Crimea, and later partially the Donbass basin, from Ukraine.
- Since the 2022 invasion, new territories have come under Russia’s controlwhere the local population did not always flee from the arriving troops.
- There are areas in Ukraine that the government simply cannot let go of, as it must also generate some kind of revenue to maintain wartime defense. Currently, it is estimated that around 6-7 million Ukrainians work in the private sector, as well as roughly 3-3.5 million in the public sector. A significant part of the workers here is believed to be in a position that is essential for the operation of primary care.
- And finally to the fights up to now, adults have been able to join as volunteers, many of whom chose to defend their country.
In terms of specific numbers, it looks like 11.1 million Ukrainian men between the ages of 25 and 60 are currently alive, 3.7 million of them can be mobilized, everyone else is either fighting, disabled, abroad, or doing critical work.
The figures shown above confront the military staff with the fact that the number of people who can be newly drafted each year falls significantly short of what is needed, as it can only amount to a few tens of thousands of people. The seemingly insurmountable challenge can be remedied by either relying more and more on the country’s primary care workers, thus accepting that the quality of public services will deteriorate. The other possible step is to lower the age of conscription, but in the case of a long-term war, this means that Kiev can practically burn its future.
The Ukrainian leadership must also take into account that whatever it does, the government’s popularity will almost certainly fall. Zelenskyi’s opinion has already deteriorated significantly in a year, although he does not have to worry yet. On the other hand, it seems certain that the Ukrainian troops are currently facing a challenge that Western weapons can only help with temporarily, but in the long term much more is needed to stop Russia.
the start of Western arms shipments can raise morale again and perhaps contribute somewhat to the success of the mobilization.
However, this is a quagmire and it is quite possible that the case will pose a dramatic challenge in the medium term, which it is not certain that they will be able to overcome in Ukraine with Western support.
Cover image credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Tags: weapons vain Ukrainian army suffers unsolvable problem
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