In recent years, China and the United States have been fighting an increasingly fierce battle to assume the role of global hegemon. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) announced in 2013, Beijing is increasing its economic-political-social influence around the world, and in recent years military aspects have slowly started to appear. For a long time, Washington did not want to deal with the idea in particular, and China pounced on the opportunity that presented itself, not tolerant of contradiction. Investments aimed at strengthening the country’s power appeared one after the other around the world. At first, the initiative focused mainly on Southeast Asia, the post-Soviet states of Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa and Europe, but after the first successes, Beijing extended its plans to Oceania and South America, which now encompass the entire world.
The United States realized only late that the BRI might be able to change Washington’s superpower positions, but in recent years the American machine seems to be waking up.
The White House and its allies are announcing rival ideas to the Belt and Road one after the other, but their significance seems to be limited for the time being. What can be a particularly painful point for America is that the Chinese have also appeared in the Central American and Caribbean regions, which are considered the country’s “backyard”, and which are questioning centuries-old doctrines. We wrote about the regional competition between the two powers in more detail here:
The slow awakening of the United States does not go unanswered in Beijing either, it seems that China’s great power policy is raising the stakes: after economic-infrastructural-political positions, it is also strengthening its military position in America’s immediate neighborhood. The news is that the Eastern superpower is carrying out a “suspicious development” on Antigua, a small member of the Caribbean archipelago.
The strategically important tourist paradise
The Windy Islands, which are considered a popular tourist paradise, have so far been mostly famous for their natural values, where those who want to relax have come from all over the world. Located in the middle of the island chain, Antigua has never played a prominent role from a geopolitical point of view, the 281 square kilometer (roughly half the size of Budapest) land forms a country together with neighboring Barbuda. Europe first set foot in the area in 1493, when Christopher Columbus made it the territory of the Spanish crown during his first expedition. The name of the island also comes from him: he named it after the “Old Virgin” (La Virgen de la Antigua) in the Cathedral of Seville. Later, the English appeared in the region, the sugar cane plantations and the slave trade gave the main role of Antigua at that time. London’s supervision over the island ended very late, in 1981, even though the United States had already established a presence on Antigua during the Cold War.
The US Navy established a military base here, the main task of which was defense against Soviet submarines. The settlement was maintained until 1984, and the Pentagon also operated a small air base near the capital until 2015.
However, with the American military withdrawal, the island was practically made a free prey, and China, hunting for similar opportunities, immediately pounced on the opportunity. Antigua meets the interests of the emerging superpower in almost every aspect: the income is not too high, it has an excellent geographical position, it is a great commercial center, Mexico and the United States, which promise a huge market, are just a hop away from here.
Beijing is officially building a “special economic zone” in Antigua, according to the Newsweek article, a port and an airport will also be established, and the authorities here will have unique legal powers in the areas of customs and immigration. According to the idea, China also plans to install a number of companies on the tiny island, which can operate widely in the middle of the Caribbean, from logistics to cryptocurrencies. According to the report, many companies have already started their activities and for now there is no end in sight to the rapid expansion of the economic center. To understand the importance of this, it is worth digging deeper into the role of the region for America.
Centuries-old principles
The United States has had a variable approach to Central America and the Caribbean, depending on how world political events have unfolded. The region first became the focus of Washington’s attention in 1823, when the then American president announced his country’s new foreign policy doctrine. The essence of this was that America, which was gaining stronger positions as an emerging great power, would take action against the European colonialist intent, and at the same time secure the country’s sphere of influence to the south. The principle, named the Monroe Doctrine after the president, has practically been one of the cornerstones of White House policy ever since. The principle has evolved a lot in the last more than two centuries, especially during the Cold War. At that time, socialist forces with close relations with the Soviet Union took power in Cuba, which is only a few hundred kilometers from the coast of Florida. Due to this development, Washington could not afford the communists to gain even more ground in the country’s direct sphere of influence, so the region became more valuable in its eyes.
After the collapse of the Eastern Bloc, the United States was left without a challenger and could exercise virtually unlimited power over most of the world.
This also resulted in the waning of political attention in the Central American and Caribbean region, which was considered a safe spot, and this was mercilessly exploited by China, which was projecting a global perspective. American decision-makers have already noticed the stealthy activities of the power that appears as a new rival. The spokesperson of the Florida-based Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) also made a statement regarding the new developments in Antigua and drew attention to a challenge that is even more alarming than before (for the Western superpower):
We understand that China can use its commercial and diplomatic presence for military purposes. In Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, China has already abused trade agreements in host country ports for military purposes; our concern is that they may do the same in this region.
The assumption would raise the competition between the two great powers in the region to a new level, since Beijing previously only increased its influence along the financial and economic lines. Chinese interests have appeared in Cuba, which maintains bad relations with America, and according to reports, the Chinese Communist Party has established a spy center and a military training base in the country. The Antigua facility could presumably represent a “hindland” for this. According to SOUTHCOM, the purpose of intelligence activities can be twofold:
at the same time, they are trying to undermine American influence in the region, and they are also trying to obtain information and create confusion directly in the United States.
American geopolitical analysts are already sounding the alarm that the region could easily turn from America’s “backyard” into Beijing’s “front yard”.
Supply and demand
China uses a well-known recipe to successfully increase its influence: it uses its economic power, especially in countries in difficult financial situations.
In recent years, Western powers have often been preoccupied with their own problems, so foreign policy aspects receive less attention. This results in many countries being left alone with their problems, which Chinese geopoliticians hunt like bloodhounds. Governments in a vulnerable situation are desperate for an opportunity to somehow get out of the financial and economic hole.
Antigua and Barbuda is a very illustrative example of the above: the tiny country has received a total of $176 million in Chinese loans until 2022, as well as an investment of $60 million for a water pipeline construction project. A stadium was also built, and the international airport was renovated with the money of the Eastern superpower.
Gaston Browne, the prime minister of the country in office since 2014, was not stingy with words of praise regarding Beijing’s policy:
I see China as a country that stands for truth, and as a country that has at least some empathy for small states, and generally for poor and oppressed people around the world.
The two countries have maintained diplomatic relations with each other since 1983, but this did not mean a strong bond for a long time. However, with the rise of the great power in the East, Beijing diplomats slowly began to strengthen the relationship. As part of this, the island also joined the BRI in 2018. The culmination of the process – so far – occurred in January 2024, when the tiny Caribbean country opened an embassy in the Chinese capital, and a number of cooperation agreements were signed with China. On the other hand, a prominent role is given to the 1,600-hectare duty-free economic zone known as SEZH (Special Economic Zone Holdings), which is being built on the site of a former – bankrupt – Chinese company. The Far Eastern government provides large subsidies to the area so that as many businesses as possible settle there. As the president of the zone company, Newsweek identifies Duan Hongtao, who is suspected in an Interpol report of a $300 million bank fraud in China.
The activity sounds almost like a dream for the island’s government at first, but the sovereignty of the relationship raises concerns. Antigua and Barbuda are becoming indebted to Beijing, and the Eastern superpower is starting to invest in its most valuable areas from a strategic point of view. Local opposition leaders say the country is selling its future in exchange for some investments. Gisele Isaac of the local United Progressive Party put it this way in an interview:
Antigua has sold its sovereignty to China, I think most of us think so. … this administration – and this is our concern – has become too dependent on one partner, and that partner is China.
In addition to economic exposure, environmental concerns are also increasing. Local and international organizations have drawn attention to the fact that Chinese companies often do not care about regulations and seriously damage nature with their activities. These investments may take away from the island the very values that are its greatest attraction.
The United States messed up its strategy by not paying enough attention to the region, which is why they ignored the cries for help.
In the meantime, Caribbean states seeking economic development are working hard to break out of the tourist paradise box and diversify their one-sided economy. This became a particularly prominent aspect in the years after 2020, when the tourism industry around the world suffered dramatic collapses due to closures. The Caribbean islands that rely on foreign guests suffered from this very seriously, so they paid extra attention to the transformation of the economic system. China and regional needs met here, because, in contrast to Western fixations, Beijing saw financial and commercial potential in the region. Moreover, the great power in the East is aware that it cannot build too violently, as this could provoke the anger of the United States.
Washington has not yet taken serious steps to curb China’s threatening presence, as they are not considered dangerous for now. The other aspect is that they clearly fulfill the role of the regional power center, which Beijing has not been able to significantly change so far. The Western superpower, on the other hand, is playing a dangerous game with this, as control can easily slip out of its hands, which it can only take back with very serious efforts.
Cover image credit: Chris Jackson/Getty Images
