As square as fading Patrick Corbin is, it still seems that oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for how truly dreadful the Washington Nationals pitcher is at this point in his career.
For the second start in a row, Corbin will look to keep the Dodgers’ stacked lineup in check Tuesday night at Nationals Park.
Let’s check out the matchup and find a betting edge.
Dodgers vs. Nationals odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -220 | -1.5 (-134) | o10 (-104) |
| Nationals | +184 | +1.5 (+112) | u10 (-118) |
Dodgers vs. Nationals prediction
(6:45 p.m. ET)
Even with some timely outs, Corbin’s stat line ended up being pretty horrific in the last matchup with the Dodgers. He allowed five earned, nine hits and was hard-hit 67% of the time last week in Los Angeles.
There aren’t many teams who would still trot out Corbin every five days, and even for the Nationals it might not be sustainable for much longer.
Corbin has given up 1.62 hits per inning this season, which has helped cause his 8.06 ERA. He has allowed an xBA of .336.
In 138 innings since the start of the 2022 season, opponents are hitting .351 on pitches in the strike zone against him. That’s the worst mark in MLB by a good margin among starters who have thrown more than 130 innings in that span.
It’s crazy to say 13-11 is a disappointing record, but for the Dodgers it has to be viewed as such.
Production from their lineup hasn’t been concerning though, as they have averaged 5.17 runs per game and hit a wRC+ of 116. They own the third-best xwOBA in baseball at .344.
Dodgers vs. Nationals pick
Backing the Dodgers first five inning team total to go over 2.5, or LA to manage over 5.5 off Corbin will be popular wagers, and there’s no argument from me there.
James Paxton gets the Nationals nod, and since he is due for significant negative regression, I actually see the most value betting the first five innings to go over 5.5, rather than backing just the Dodgers to be productive.
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Paxton owns an xFIP of 6.03, and an xERA of 5.12. He owns a horrible K/BB ratio of 0.71, and has been hard-hit 52.3% of the time. He owns a Stuff+ of just 73.
Stranding 89.3% of base runners, and having opponents hit only .190 on balls in play has covered up a ton of flaws.
Neither of those things are likely to continue, and Paxton’s ERA should trend downward significantly the rest of the way.
