Russia’s peace mission started with great promises, but was a serious failure – What will become of the conflict between the two arch-enemies?

Four villages will be returned to Azerbaijan, border designation is underway

The situation near the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is tense. We have heard this phrase many times in recent years, but now it is not Armenian and Azeri soldiers who are eyeing each other or shooting at each other, but the residents of the Tavus region in northern Armenia who live close to the Azeri border have been protesting for days. The reason: The government of Armenia decided that four villages are returned to Azerbaijanwhich would be the condition for the long-desired peace treaty between the two countries.

The four villages in the Tavus region form an enclave within Armenia – thus the area is an exclave of Azerbaijan. During the time of the Soviet Union – within which both Armenia and Azerbaijan were member republics – borders were not of particular importance, however, after the collapse of the empire – in fact, even before that – the ancient Armenian-Azeri antagonism erupted again. The main stake of the conflict was Nagorno-Karabakh, but it also extended to the Azeri enclaves in Armenia and an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. The Azeri enclaves were occupied by the Armenians, the Armenian enclaves were occupied by the Azeri, their inhabitants fled, and the affected settlements have been depopulated ever since.

The process that has just started would change this, but it causes strong objections from the Armenian residents living nearby, who fear that the resettling Azeris, or more precisely the Azeri security forces, will pose a threat to them. In addition, the four affected Azeri villages it is located next to the main road to Georgia, which is an important trade route, and there is even a Russian gas pipeline nearby.

The Armenian demonstrators have been keeping the local highway closed for several days and have also clashed with the Armenian security forces. Nikol Pashinja back in March, the Armenian Prime Minister told the locals that if they did not return the villages, they would risk war with Azerbaijan. However, according to Pasinján’s critics, the Armenian government’s move is unilateral, because Baku did not promise to return the enclave wedged into Azeri territory to Armenia. In authoritarian-led Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev The return of the four villages is considered a great success of President (İlham Aliyev).

The settlement of the issue of the Azeri villages is part of the larger process aimed at the complete and precise demarcation of the Armenian-Azeri border.

The border issue has not been resolved since the independence of the two countries, and so far there have not even been attempts to draw the border lines exactly. Pasinján recently posted photos on the Internet of the first official Armenian and Azeri border posts on the common border of the two countries. Azeri President Aliyev said that when demarcating the border, it is not necessary to adhere to the lines on the map, they should be considered as a basis, but it is possible to deviate from them in order to create a border “that is safe and comfortable for both sides”.

War fears

The relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan is quite contradictory. While the borders are being marked and the Azeri villages are being returned, at the level of rhetoric, the tone remains very hostile,

And in Armenia, there is a significant fear that Baku is not satisfied with occupying Nagorno-Karabakh, which belongs to it according to international law, but was once inhabited by Armenians, but also seeks official Armenian territories.

The feeling of being threatened is not unfounded. For example, President Aliyev repeatedly referred to Armenia as “West Azerbaijan”. The question is also regularly raised that Baku would like a corridor controlled by it between the greater part of Azerbaijan and its exclave called Nakhchivan, which would pass through Armenia. The plan, called the “Zangezur Corridor”, is of course opposed by Yerevan, but Aliyev previously hinted that it might even be implemented by force.

Armenia was once a close military ally of Russia, as it expected the “big brother” to protect it against the Azeri threat. These hopes were spectacularly dashed last September, when Azerbaijan captured Nagorno-Karabakh in one day, and almost the entire Armenian population of 120,000 fled to the motherland. He was ordered there after the 2020 Armenian-Azeri war Russian peacekeepers did not intervene, not even after they were accidentally attacked from the Azeri side, in which Russian soldiers lost their lives. In mid-April, according to the ceasefire agreement, Russian peacekeepers stationed in and around Nagorno-Karabakh until 2025 they began a full withdrawal.

But the Russians must soon start withdrawing not only from the Nagorno-Karabakh territories, but also from Armenia, as Yerevan called on the border guards of the Russian FSB serving at the Zvartnots international airport to return home. At the same time, approximately 3,000 Russian soldiers are still stationed at the Russian military base No. 102 in the Armenian city of Gyumri, but there is no word yet on their withdrawal.

Armenia in the Moscow-led military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) suspended his membership, while opening more and more spectacularly towards the West. Pasinja in early April Ursula von der Leyen and Josep Borrell with EU leaders, respectively Antony Blinken met with the American Secretary of State in Brussels, who assured Yerevan of their support. The European Union also promised an economic support package of 270 million euros. Meanwhile, Armenia has concluded contracts with, among others, France, Greece and India, and is conducting negotiations on the purchase of weapons.

The arming of Armenia is for protection only, since the Armenian Prime Minister also recently admitted that Baku has a four-fold superiority over Yerevan militarily. Despite this, Azeri President Aliyev stated on Tuesday, “they won’t watch with folded hands”so that France, Greece and India arm Armenia against them.

If we see a serious threat in our direction, we will be forced to take serious measures

– He told. Pasinján also spoke about the meeting in Brussels, with which, according to him, the West wants to create fault lines in the South Caucasus.

By the way, Russia usually makes similar statements, for example, the Russian Ministry of Defense wrote in a statement on Tuesday that the “collective West” wants to destabilize the post-Soviet region, including the South Caucasus. Moscow and Baku are apparently getting closer: Aliyev paid a visit on Monday Vladimir Putin with the Russian president in Moscow.

In the shadow of the Azeri threat, the Armenian population is preparing for another war, for example, more and more civilians are participating in military training organized by voluntary associations. According to a recently published public opinion survey, 96 percent of the population in Armenia said they would be willing to take up arms to defend their country, which is the highest number in a survey conducted in several countries of the world.

Cover photo: Russian Defense Ministry press service footage of Russian peacekeepers’ vehicles before they leave the territory of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Republic captured by Azerbaijan in September 2023 on April 17, 2024. Press service of MTI/EPA/Russian Ministry of Defense