The IMF examined the differences in export shares within and outside trading blocs between 2018 and 2023. Countries traded nearly $270 billion more with their allies in 2023 than in 2018. That shift came at the expense of trade with rival blocs, which saw a drop of $314 billion. For example, the EU’s share of exports to G7 countries increased from 74.3 percent in 2018 to 75.4 percent in 2023, which corresponds to an increase of 1.1 percentage points. The UK had the biggest increase with the rest of the G7 countries (+10.2 percentage points), as after the post-Brexit trade slump, the British trade with the EU again as much as before.
Due to the trade dispute between the United States and China, China’s share of exports to the G7 fell by 5.2 percentage points from 2018 to 2023. This is the biggest drop in the countries under review. Partly as a result of this conflict, the United States currently has by far the most protectionist tariffs.
The Russian-Ukrainian war and the subsequent Western sanctions contributed to Russia’s share of exports to the G7 falling by 3.8 percentage points.
India, South Africa and the United Kingdom are exceptions. These three countries were able to increase their exports to the opposing blocs.
Overall, the BRICS trade less with the G7, relying more on non-bloc partners to make up for losses with the G7.
