In the Nuclear Sharing NATO program, Poland is ready to receive nuclear weapons on its territory if the allies decide to do so, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced on Monday. He argued that Russia is increasingly militarizing its exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Poland, and has recently installed nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to Duda, the issue has been on the agenda of the Polish-American negotiations for “some time”, he himself has discussed it several times.
It’s been on the agenda for a few years now
Indeed, Polish political debates on this matter began several years ago. In February 2017, the then gray eminence of the Polish government, Jarosław Kaczyński, stated that he would welcome the creation of a “European nuclear superpower”. And last June, then Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced in Brussels: Warsaw is turning to NATO because of Moscow’s plans to install nuclear weapons in Belarus, and declared that Warsaw wants to act quickly regarding Poland’s accession to the Nuclear Sharing Program.
Photo: EPA / Radek Pietruszka
Dalibor Rohac, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, writes in the London Spectator that Poland should have nuclear weapons. Rohac claims: “When it comes to the security of Eastern Europe, especially in the event of Trump’s return, few measures would be as effective as arming the largest country in the region – Poland – with nuclear weapons.”
Moscow’s position
The escalation started half a year ago when Russia installed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus at the end of 2023. According to Minsk, these weapons were placed there to “deter Poland”.
Behind the deployment in Belarus was Russia’s intention to match the alleged potential deployment of US nuclear weapons to Poland. The Kremlin believes that the US could quickly deploy nuclear weapons to Poland as part of the AEGIS Ashore air defense system.
The AEGIS vertical launch system supports anti-aircraft interceptor missiles, but can also launch Tomahawk cruise missiles. The US withdrew its Tomahawk nuclear warheads after the signing of the INF Treaty, but the Russians apparently believe that the Tomahawk can easily be converted into a nuclear delivery system.
This potential, in Russian eyes, probably justifies the Belarusian deployment as a Russian countermeasure, although there may be other reasons for Putin’s action. More and more people in the United States are calling for the return of the nuclear Tomahawk.
The Russians say the US could move other nuclear delivery systems to Poland at a moment’s notice, including F-35 fighter jets capable of dropping nuclear gravity bombs. Russia has learned from Western reports that NATO’s Nuclear Sharing program will include the F-35s.
European concerns
Currently, the EU spends billions of euros to arm and support Ukraine and encourages its member states to supply weapons, including fighter jets, artillery systems and other military equipment. Poland is a strong supporter of the EU initiative and acts as the main staging point for weapons destined for Ukraine.
Both the EU and NATO fear that if Ukraine loses the war against Russia, the war could spread to Poland. As Europe and the United States increasingly empty their arsenals of conventional weapons, the nuclear option seems more attractive to many. According to some Poles, the existence of a nuclear deterrent would make Russian leaders wonder whether to launch an attack against Poland and, consequently, NATO.
Trump’s shadow
Fear prevails among European elites because of the presidential candidacy of Donald Trump. This refers to the reports that Trump wants to distance himself from NATO and put it on “standby”. The former president’s political circle is known for his plans to let NATO “sleep”, to withdraw the American army from Europe, and to reawaken the alliance in the framework of a “big war” at most.
The transatlantic alliance is not really relevant in terms of the US’s central interest in winning the power struggle against China – if necessary, militarily as well – observers add. This will presumably strengthen Trump in turning away from NATO, with which he flirted already during his first term in office.
Should Europe prepare to defend itself without the United States? Will the American nuclear umbrella, the cornerstone of European security, disappear?
These are difficult questions for the Europeans and the United States. If the United States decides to change its European policy under a future Trump presidency, then European leaders may go down the nuclear road themselves.
(Author’s page of Csaba Káncz available here.)
