Index – Foreign – It is not at all certain that Ursula von der Leyen will be the leader of Europe again

An EU official, speaking anonymously, said that the commission president “mistakenly believed that he could get away with everything. Some of his mistakes will now be used against him.” There are threats to the current president from both sides.

France, whose relationship with Germany is rather sour, is still giving very ambiguous messages about support. If he overcomes the potential hurdle of disagreements with Paris, he may even worry about whether he can win a majority in a reconstituted European Parliament (in which the far-right is likely to play a bigger role than now). Because even the support of his own centre-right European People’s Party seems uncertain, writes Politico in its analysis.

After a series of stumbles in recent weeks, uncertainty appears to be growing, EU officials and diplomats have stressed. This is quite a turnaround compared to the beginning of the year, when the driver’s chances were still rock solid.

Von der Leyen’s stumbles – from the Pfizer affair to her trip to Israel – are being reframed as we approach the election

said Alberto Alemanno, professor of law at HEC business school in Paris.

What happened?

Two other officials considered the party congress in Bucharest in March to be the turning point. At the beginning of March, European conservatives gathered in the Romanian capital to officially support the former German defense minister. But some, such as influential French conservative politician Michel Barnier, refused to support it.

European Commissioner Thierry Breton, who sits in the faction of the rival Liberals but works alongside von der Leyen, publicly complained that the leader did not receive enough support from his own faction. The liberals are also part of the coalition that supports von der Leyen in the European Parliament.

Although von der Leyen was the EPP’s only candidate, he received only 400 out of 499 votes in Bucharest, with 89 against.

Since then, the leader’s chances have been getting worse and worse. First of all, with an inter-party initiative in the European Parliament – in which the People’s Party also participated – the committee’s decision was legally challenged, which awarded 10 billion euros of EU funds to Hungary, despite the debates about the rule of law, the newspaper reports.

A debate was initiated between von der Leyen and the European Parliament on rule of law issues – in which the European People’s Party is considered weak. And the leader needs the votes of the parliament to begin his second term.

Von der Leyen herself launched her campaign late, appointing the members of her team only weeks after becoming a candidate. His campaign manager was Björn Seibert, who was the chief of staff of the European Commission until April 5 – and this provoked further criticism in Brussels.

This shows that you can only rely on a very narrow circle of reliable people. Not that you can definitely rely on your own party

said a high-ranking parliamentary official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Alexander Winterstein, a spokesman for von der Leyen’s campaign, emphasized that the leader has a double burden as a reigning president and a candidate.

Ursula von der Leyen also traveled to Greece, Germany and Latvia to campaign. Its main messages will be democracy, prosperity and security. He will confront those who want to undermine European democracy – both from outside Europe and from within

Winterstein said.

The EU leader can become a lame duck

While Germany has no choice but to support the former German defense minister – even though his party is not part of the governing coalition – France is playing a different game.

The leader of Emmanuel Macron’s Renew faction, Valérie Hayer, also expressed uncertainty.

I don’t rule out voting for him again, but not the other way around either

– He told.

Several EU diplomats interpret the signals coming from Paris as an attempt to squeeze concessions from von der Leyen.

The French don’t want you walking down the red carpet in a shower of flowers. A German Commission President who can do whatever he wants during his second term is a real nightmare for them

said an EU diplomat.

However, Macron’s support is key for von der Leyen. To win his second mandate, he must win a qualified majority of the members of the European Council. Although the 12 European conservative leaders are likely to be on his side, it is not known how much support he can garner outside his party.

Hungary and Slovakia are extremely critical of the committee’s policy, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly argued with it over the war in Israel. Von der Leyen’s firm stance in favor of Israel drew disapproval from Spain, Ireland, Belgium and the European left.

However, the real challenge is the European Parliament. The committee president came to power in 2019 with the support of the conservative European People’s Party, the Socialists and the liberal Renew faction. However, he only had a narrow majority – he received 383 votes, which is not far above the minimum 374 votes. If the extreme right gains ground, it would be difficult for von der Leyen to repeat this.

After June 10, von der Leyen will have to start courting newly elected European lawmakers to win their votes.

Members of parliament will put enormous pressure on him

said an EU official.

This entails the risk that during his second mandate his room for maneuver will be narrowed, and he may even become a lame duck, said one of the sources.

In the meantime, his critics have already thrown in other names for the position of president of the European Commission. Some came from his own party, such as European Parliament President Roberta Metsola of Malta or Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic.

We start the fight with von der Leyen. However, this does not mean that we stick with it until the very end

said one source.

(Cover photo: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, attends a press conference at the extraordinary meeting of the European Council, in Brussels, Belgium on April 18, 2024. Photo: Pier Marco Tacca / Getty Images Hungary)