A slow death, but a mass catastrophe may await Red Bull with the departure of Adrian Newey

It will definitely be a big loss for Red Bull if Adrian Newey leaves the team, but the big question is what the consequences will be.

Based on the news of the last day, it is more likely than ever that one of the greatest geniuses in the history of Formula 1, Adrian Newey, who played a key role in the success of Red Bull Racing, will leave the team that he has been a key pillar of since 2006. About what makes him/her do this HERE we wrote earlier, but now let’s take a look at how the departure of the 65-year-old star designer can affect Red Bull.

If Newey does not fulfill his contract until at least the end of 2025, according to Red Bull’s information, and if he resigns at the end of this season, or in the worst case for the bulls, already in the middle of this season, the impact may be felt seriously in 2026 at the earliest, since the development of this year’s car its steps were defined by the team a long time ago, while next year’s model will certainly be an evolution of the RB20, so the basics will hardly change.

In the person of Pierre Waché, Red Bull has a knowledgeable technical leader, and the technical team has also proven its ability. Since Newey’s contribution has been primarily in recent years was significant in determining the direction and concept, they will be able to steer a properly oriented ship without it. At the same time, the departure of Newey will be a significant loss, whose role, although team boss Christian Horner has tried in vain to minimize it recently, is still significant, and there are periods when he is golden.

Such a period will be the beginning of 2025, as from then on the teams can start working on the 2026 cars to be built according to the significantly changed rules. And since Red Bull would not have been able to fit into the new rules in 2022 without Newey’s unique vision, the big question is how much they will miss Newey’s creativity in 2026.

This period, presumably without Newey, will also be a great test for Red Bull’s technical staff, as we can be sure that they will all be determined to prove that they can build a capable car even without the design genius and define the part or parts of the concept that the the greatest emphasis must be placed. Newey did this with naturally aspirated cars and recognized before anyone else that the suspension was the secret.

Could Newey’s exit start a chain reaction?

The departure of the engineer who has won 25 world championship titles with his cars can be a big loss in itself due to the above and could start Red Bull on the path of slow decline. Of course, this does not mean that they will suddenly be last or sink back into the midfield, but between 2015 and 2018 we have already seen what it is like when Newey is only moderately involved in the work. During this period, the design genius became quite disillusioned with F1 – largely thanks to the Renault engines, which they did not have a chance to fight with Mercedes – which meant that he was not involved in the day-to-day work, but in the 2015 and 2017 es car also helped to solve the problems that arose at the beginning of the season, so his contribution could be said to be significant even then.

Of course, Red Bull did not fall apart when he quit his day job, they also won races during this period, but Newey’s genius was clearly missing from the big picture. This may also be missing after 2025, especially if for some reason they fail to be immediately competitive with the 2026 car. But if the technical team led by Waché is able to rise to the task – even though Red Bull will never be the same without Newey – the increase in the number of World Cup titles must not necessarily be given up either.

The serious problem, however, may not only be if it is not possible to build a car capable enough without Newey, but also what effect the separation of the star designer may have on the others. As in the case of any top driver, it is also true for Newey that his presence attracted capable engineers, and that the team with him is also able to attract specialists more easily.

The question is, how many people will Newey’s departure make them also look for a new team, thinking that the road will only go down from here. And not only engineers, but even Max Verstappen can be faced with a crossroads in such a situation, moreover, with the arrival of the new engine regulations in 2026, Red Bull will have to climb a bigger mountain than all the other teams, since they will start competing with their own engines from this year. This is another factor of uncertainty (not a small one), since there is no guarantee that they will immediately start the new cycle with a capable engine.

This and a car designed without Newey could be such a big question mark for the Dutchman (not to mention the scenario if technical director Pierre Waché signs with Ferrari in the meantime, which would really cause a minor disaster in the bull team) that he would look for another stable after 2025 , and let’s say join Mercedes, which is reportedly doing very well on the engine front.

Is withdrawal an option?

Realistically, Newey’s possible next stop could be Ferrari and Aston Martin, but Mercedes should not be completely ruled out either. But if his contract runs “at least until the end of 2025” and he can’t shorten the usual forced leave in agreement with Red Bull, he most likely won’t be able to work for any of his rivals before 2027.

With the loss of Newey giving Red Bull more time to reorganize, if at least they don’t have to worry about another team profiting from the engineering genius’ expertise in the meantime, they are unlikely to make any concessions to him. This means that Newey would have to miss a significant amount of time, as he will be 66 years old this December. And here it may arise whether he wants to embark on a completely new project at such an age, or what happens, which no one is talking about much in the current situation, and Newey puts an end to his F1 career.