The dollar is strengthening, and according to the current macroeconomic and largely monetary policy outlook, this march will not lose momentum for quite some time. This hurts practically everyone outside the United States, but there is a group of companies whose members can reap huge benefits from the rise of the greenback: exporters who sell their products on the American market, but do not produce them overseas, but rather in Europe or Asia.
This grouping, which mainly consists of pharmaceutical, chip manufacturing and industrial companies, is doing very well on two fronts with its US and dollar exposure. On the one hand, it is able to sell its products in an economy that even an unprecedentedly strict monetary policy could not encourage to slow down, so the appetite of its customer market is almost insatiable. On the other hand, since it does not produce in dollars, but earns its income in dollars, it also gains a lot from the development of the exchange rate difference.
After all, as the dollar strengthens, it is worth more and more domestic currency for companies that produce for export – so when you convert your earnings into your own currency, you get more units of money for your greenback than before, and you can pocket this difference in addition to your earnings.
One of the biggest winners of the international capital market situation marked by a strong dollar is clearly the Taiwanese chip manufacturer, TSMC: nearly two-thirds of the company’s revenues come from the United States, and the optimism can also be seen in the company’s papers: they grew by 29 percent this year.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, in addition to Taiwanese companies, Japanese stocks also have a favorable future for them: as they pointed out, the correlation between Japanese stocks and the dollar-yen cross rate is 0.8, i.e. it can be considered particularly strong – so if the dollar strengthens, the shares of the island country start to march. According to their analysis, which was seen by Bloomberg, both Toyota and Mitsubishi will do well with the strong greenback.
The outlook for the forint is not very rosy – it is increasingly difficult for the domestic currency to thrive in the shadow of the dollarLooking at the expectations regarding international and domestic interest rates, which are significant from the point of view of the world economy, it can be stated that the hay of the forint is not doing well, it is hard to imagine that we will see a huge strengthening of the forint this year. The dollar can absorb all capital, and supporters of the forint cannot hold out for any length of time. |
According to analysts, large European pharmaceutical companies, such as the Danish Novo Nordisk, also have a bright future, and this also applies to the Hungarian Richter: one of the most important markets for the Hungarian pharmaceutical company is the US, and the weakening of the forint in parallel with the strengthening of the dollar can be considered a favorable sign for it.
