According to Erste’s calculations, the possible introduction of the floating official price ceiling could mean a HUF 28 billion loss of EBITDA for Mol. This is 2.5 percent of last year’s EBITDA.
This in itself is not a huge blow, but the reduction of the official prices is negative from a risk point of view for the perception of Mol – said the Erste analyst.
In terms of retail sales, Mol’s market weight is 40 percent, which means the annual sale of 2 billion liters of gasoline and 3.6 billion liters of diesel fuel. Based on these, Mol could expect an annual EBITDA loss of HUF 28 billion if the government really introduces the floating official price ceiling, which would somehow already reflect the average prices in the region. It is not yet possible to know for sure, but according to market expectations, this price cap would be adjusted weekly.
But now there is a grace period of two more weeks: today, domestic prices still exceed the regional average, at HUF 27/liter for gasoline, and HUF 10/liter for diesel fuel. The ministry therefore called on the market players to reduce their prices to the level of the regional average prices in the next two weeks.
If the actors do not do this, then the dynamic price ceiling will come.
Gergely Gulyás and Eszter Vitályos will hold a Government Information from 11 a.m. today, during which more details about yesterday’s decision can be revealed. Investors seem to have made friends with the current situation, after yesterday’s performance, the price of Mol shares rose by another half a percent.
