The Phillies are red-hot and there’s no reason to fade them now.
They’ve won seven straight games, so until they lose, let’s keep cashing tickets.
Philadelphia jumped on Cincinnati early Monday night and cruised to a 7-0 victory – the team’s fourth straight by a margin of at least five runs.
Meanwhile, the Reds are playing well and have won three of their past four.
In this betting preview of Tuesday night’s game in Cincinnati, I’ll go over why it might be a good idea to fade Reds starter Andrew Abbott.
Phillies vs. Reds odds
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Money line: Phillies -125, Reds +105
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Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+135), Reds +1.5 (-160)
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Total: Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105)
Phillies vs. Reds prediction
As the cliche goes, hitting is contagious, and Philadelphia’s entire lineup has seemingly caught the bug.
Not only have they scored five or more runs in six straight games, but the metrics suggest Abbott is due for regression.
That’s a perfect combo for us to return to Philadelphia.
Abbott, a 24-year-old lefty, has pitched to a 2.70 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 23 1/3 innings this season and has given up two earned runs or fewer in all four starts.
However, he doesn’t miss many bats, and if a lineup that’s seeing the ball well continuously puts the ball in play, it’s likely to generate some hits.
Abbott has pitched to a 3.35 xERA, which is solid, but he ranks in just the sixth percentile in whiff rate and the 25th percentile in strikeout percentage.
» READ MORE: The Phillies are worth the bet to win the National League pennant in 2024
He’s not going to get the Phillies to strike out much, so the Reds are going to have to hope the ball hits their defenders.
Christopher Sanchez, who will start for the Phillies, is coming off his best start of the season.
Yes, it was against the awful Rockies, but the 27-year-old lefty struck out 10 and surrendered just one run over six innings.
On the season, Sanchez has pitched to a 2.95 ERA and a 2.61 xERA.
His metrics also back up those strong numbers as he ranks in the 96th percentile for ground-ball rate (which will be key in Cincinnati’s small park), the 80th percentile in chase rate and the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Phillies vs. Reds pick
Trust Philadelphia to keep hitting, Sanchez to stay sharp, and bet the Phillies on the money line.
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Pick: Phillies ML (-124, FanDuel)
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