Twist: could the renegade candidate harm Trump’s election chances, not Biden’s?

NBC News has released a new survey of Americans’ electoral preferences. According to the survey conducted between April 12 and 16 Donald Trump the incumbent still retains its primacy Joe Biden before, 46 percent of registered voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 44 percent would vote for the Democrat. This result, on the other hand, is considered well within the 3.1 percent margin of error.

However, the novelty of the current numbers lies in the fact that if we expand the field to five, we can draw a conclusion that contradicts the previous polls.

Biden takes the lead with 39 percent,

while Trump is second with 37 percent support. The independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The Green Party collects 13 percent Jill Stein three, while is also independent Cornel West you can get two percent.

The balance of power in the Biden-Trump duel is therefore reversed, taking into account the additional candidates. The reason for this is that

15 percent of those who voted for Trump in a two-person field would vote for Kennedy if five people were on the ballot.

Meanwhile a much smaller part of those who originally voted for Biden, only 7 percent, would only vote for Kennedy. Republicans also see Kennedy in a much more favorable light (40% positive, 15% negative) than their Democrats (16% positive, 53% negative). The current result goes against previous research, so it is not yet known whether we are only seeing an exception that reinforces the rule or the first harbinger of a new rule.

In any case, based on RealClearPolling, which summarizes the surveys in April, the difference between Biden and Trump was within one percent almost all of the time,

that is, since November 2023, the competition between the two candidates has not been this close.

Trump currently stands at an average of 44.5 percent, while Biden at 44.1 percent. however, in a five-person race, Trump’s advantage increases to 1.6 percent (41.9%-40.6%).

Cover Photo: Former U.S. President Donald Trump watches a video featuring President Joe Biden on Nov. 6, 2022, in Miami, Florida. Cover image source: Getty Images