Biden Leads Trump With RFK Jr. On Ballot In New Poll

Top line

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. draws more votes away from former President Donald Trump than President Joe Biden, according to a new survey—contradicting a string of previous polls that suggest Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy is more of a threat to Biden.

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. visits “Fox & Friends” at Fox News Channel Studios on … [+] April 02, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images)

Getty Images

Key Facts

Biden leads Trump by two points when Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West are on the ballot, but he trails Trump by two points in a head-to-head matchup, according to an April 12-16 NBC poll of 1,000 registered voters, although the shift is within the poll’s 3.1-point margin of error.

The poll found 15% of voters who would cast their ballots for Trump in a two-way race would switch their vote to Kennedy Jr. in a five-way contest, compared to 7% of Biden voters.

More Republicans (40%) also view Kennedy Jr. favorably compared to Democrats (16%).

The survey contradicts previous polls that have found Kennedy Jr. would take more votes from Biden than Trump, including a November Siena College poll of voters in six battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that found Democrats were more likely to back Kennedy Jr. than Republicans, along with a February Quinnipiac University poll that found Biden loses 11 points with the three independent candidates on the ballot, while Trump would lose eight.

What To Watch For

Kennedy Jr. will appear on the ballot in at least two states, Utah and Michigan—a swing state where a victory for Biden will be crucial to his chances of winning re-election. Independent candidates not affiliated with a major political party are required to petition for ballot access. His campaign and its backers have also said they’ve collected enough signatures for him to appear on the ballot in Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, although the states have yet to verify the petitions.

Surprising Fact

Voter interest in the 2024 election has dipped to a 20-year low, according to the NBC poll that found 64% of voters said they were “very interested” in this year’s election, compared with 77% who said the same in July 2020 and 69% in May 2016.

Tangent

More than a dozen Kennedy family members endorsed Biden earlier this month, including six of RFK Jr.’s siblings. RFK Jr.’s family members have repeatedly distanced themselves from him over the years as he has spread conspiracies about Covid-19 and leads an advocacy group that broadly opposes vaccines for children.

Key Background

Biden and Trump are locked in a closely contested race, with polls showing Trump leading Biden by just 0.4 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Biden, in recent weeks, has seen a slight boost in polling following his March State of the Union address and as his campaign has ramped up its event schedule, advertising and fundraising. Trump, meanwhile, has been preoccupied with his various criminal and civil cases, making more appearances from court than he has on the campaign trail—although it appears the legal woes have been somewhat successful for his campaign as he has used them to allege, without evidence , that prosecutors and judges affiliated with the probes are working on Biden’s behalf.