RFK Jr.’s candidacy may hurt Trump more than Biden in 2024, a surprising new poll says

Politics

By Ryan King

Independent presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party bid could take more of a bite out of former President Donald Trump’s numbers than President Joe Biden, a new poll suggests.

Trump, 77, ekes out a win against Biden, 81, one-on-one 46% to 44%, but when Kennedy is added to the mix, Biden tops Trump at 39% to 37%, followed by Kennedy at 13%, Jill Stein at 3% and Cornel West at 2%, an NBC News poll found.

That finding goes against some other polling results and comes against the backdrop of tightening polls between the two presidents.

Trump’s edge over Biden nationally slipped to 0.4 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.

However, when Kennedy, Stein, and West are added to the RCP mix, Trump’s lead jumps to 1.3 percentage points nationally, per the most recent data.

To land on the debate stage, Kennedy would need to achieve 15% in select polling.

Of those who defected to Kennedy, 15% first selected Trump in the one vs. one matchup, while only 7% first chose Biden, according to the NBC poll.

Kennedy also drew higher marks from Republicans with 40% to 15% positive to negative views, compared to Democrats who went 16% positive compared to 53% negative.

Both Trump’s and Biden’s campaigns have worried about the potential for Kennedy to function as a spoiler in the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Last Thursday, over a dozen members of the Kennedy clan formally endorsed Biden’s reelection bid. Many of them had warned about voting for their relative given the stakes of the 2024 election.

Kennedy had entered the 2024 arena as a Democrat before switching his party affiliation to independent last year.

Trump, meanwhile, has dubbed him the “most radical left candidate” and warned his voters against supporting the Kennedy scion.

Another key finding in the poll was that safeguarding democracy remains a potent issue for a significant chunk of the electorate.

When asked about the most important issue facing the country, 23% said inflation, 22% said the border, 16% said threats to democracy, 11% said jobs as well as the economy, and 6% selected abortion, per the poll.

Biden has predicated much of his 2024 campaign on the protection of democracy, while also working to drive home a message on the economy.

Still, disillusionment with the election seems to be running high among voters.

Only 64% of voters have a high level of interest in the presidential showdown, which is a stark decline from prior elections at this point in time, which had 77% in 2020, 69% in 2016, 67% in 2012, and 74% in 2007.

That finding marks a 20-year low in interest.

The NBC poll was taken from April 12 to 16 among 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.