American analysts: the Russian attacks are really picking up now, the advance is taking place on two fronts

According to ISW Russian forces stabilized their position northwest of Avgyiivkaand they can achieve additional tactical gains, with which they can force the Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their current tactical positions to a more defensible line.

Northwest of Avgyiivka are the Russians they made progress relatively quickly, but their results are relatively marginal. So far, they have been able to advance at a depth of about 5 kilometers since April 18. To the west and southwest of Avgyijivka, only minor, insignificant progress was achieved.

At the same time, it is also true that through the acquisition of the settlements northwest of Avgyiivka – Novobahmutivka and Solovyov the Russians reached more stable positions from which they can continue their advance on a wider scale. However, the gained salient is a maximum of 2 kilometers wide and remains vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks, if Ukrainian forces can stabilize the tactical situation in the area.

However, the Russians may be able to stabilize the salient northwest of Avgyiivka, and the Ukrainian command may decide to withdraw further west if Russian tactical results threaten the current Ukrainian positions.

Russian forces will likely continue to gain tactical advantages northwest of Avgiivka, but these advantages will not be operationally significant, let alone cause the collapse of Ukrainian defenses west of Avgiivka

ISW evaluates.

While the Russians can only make tactical gains west of Avgyivka,

Chasiv Yar offers the Russian forces the most immediate prospects for a significant advance from an operational point of view.

At Avgiyivka, Russian forces are 30 kilometers from their likely operational target, Pokrovsk.

The effort to capture Khasiv Yar, on the other hand, offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for significant operational progress, as

the capture of the city would probably allow them to launch subsequent offensive operations against the cities (Slovyansk, Kramatorsk) that form a significant Ukrainian defense zone in Donetsk Oblast

ISW writes.

Russian forces probably they are trying to occupy as much territory as possible before the arrival of the US weapons package significantly improves Ukrainian defense capabilities in the coming weeks.

The Russian military command is likely to increase offensive operations northwest of Avgiyivka because this area offers a greater opportunity to achieve faster tactical advantages, despite the fact that these advantages are relatively insignificant from an operational point of view, the American analytical institute believes.

Cover photo: Csassiv Jar on March 15, 2024. Source: Oleksandr Magula/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC “UA:PBC”/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images