In recent days, the forint moved with larger swings against the euro, but approaching the close, the level of 394 attracted the Hungarian currency again and again. Just like last week, this was the scenario on Monday as well: a few swings during the day, then it pulled back to an important level compared to the euro.
The 50-day moving average marks the support for the forint-euro pair at roughly 392.5, the trend line is a little lower than that, around 392. If, on the other hand, the forint were to begin to weaken – which could be possible with an MNB step different from the 50-point interest rate cut according to the analyst consensus – then the range between 394.5 and 395, which is marked by the zero Fibonnacci point, could represent resistance.
The forint began the morning with a weakening to 394.5, thus testing the quasi-important level.
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The bullish momentum of the dollar last week is already over, the euro-dollar exchange rate has already gravitated towards the level of 1.065 in the past few days – this partly explains why the forint also moved sideways. Compared to the greenback, the Hungarian currency tended towards the 370 level, in the morning it quickly crossed this level and approached the 371 point, but quickly corrected back from there.
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