MNB: housing price growth accelerated – We show the detailed figures

Based on the aggregate MNB housing price index, which shows the development of housing prices on a national average, housing prices decreased by 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, following a 0.3 percent increase in the previous quarter.

At the same time, the annual nominal growth rate accelerated from the 4.4 percent observed in the previous quarter to 5.8 percent due to the lower base, and in real terms, housing prices decreased by 1.8 percent annually.

This is how the numbers developed for each type of settlement

According to the latest values ​​of the MNB housing price index, the annual growth rate of housing prices accelerated in all settlement types, which was due to the base effect, with the exception of the capital. Housing prices in the capital increased by 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 after a 2.3 percent decrease in the previous quarter. The nominal annual housing price dynamics in the capital thus accelerated to 3.4 percent.

In rural towns after a 1.2 percent rise in prices in the previous quarter, house prices decreased by 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the annual housing price dynamics however, from 5.1 percent It rose to 5.7 percent. In the villages after a 0.9 percent increase in the third quarter, housing prices fell by 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, and compared to the same period of the previous year, they stayed 7.5 percent higher.

The MNB’s summary chart clearly shows that, on an annual basis, in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the price increase was the most dynamic in the villages, while it was the smallest in Budapest. At the same time, the dynamics in the fourth quarter strengthened for all settlement types, i.e. in the last quarter of 2023, prices rose at a slightly higher rate than before.

What happened in the regional cities?

Stagnating on a quarterly basis Western Transdanubia in all rural regions, except for the fourth quarter, a decrease in urban housing prices was observed. On an annual basis, prices rose in all regions with one exception. The exception is a Central Hungary cities of the region, where housing prices decreased by 4.3 percent, and a year-on-year price drop of 0.7 percent occurred. THE Southern Great Plain and Central Transdanubia In the cities of the regions, housing prices decreased by 3.0 and 2.6 percent, respectively, compared to the previous quarter, and the annual housing price dynamics reached 3.0 and 4.1 percent. The Northern Hungary, Northern Great Plains and Southern Transdanubia in cities, housing prices fell between 0.8 and 1.3 percent during the fourth quarter, but the annual housing price dynamics accelerated to 8.0, 8.6, and 10.9 percent, respectively.

How are we doing in real terms?

Finally, it is worth looking at the changes in real terms – adjusted for inflation – on the basis of which it can be said that compared to the high inflation of the past year and a half, prices fell in all types of settlements. In reality, as can be seen in the figures above, this did not mean an actual price drop, it only shows that the increase in housing prices was much smaller than that of the products in the inflation basket. Although prices are still high over a decade, they are at the level of 2018 in Budapest and at the beginning of 2021 in the cities.

In terms of national average prices, the price index of the MNB allows us to go back to an even longer period of time, which is available both in nominal and real value from 1990. Based on this, the national housing prices have developed in the last three decades as follows.

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